Households that heat mainly with natural gas or propane, about half of U.S. homes, are on track to spend less on heat this winter than last, while homes that burn heating oil face the largest increase of any fuel, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Winter Fuels Outlook, published October 6, 2026.

The outlook covers the five months from November through March and compares each figure with last winter. The EIA forecasts that the average home heated mainly by natural gas will spend $640, down 9 percent. Homes heated mainly by electricity, more than 40 percent of households, are forecast to spend $1,196, up 4 percent. Propane homes are forecast at $1,246, down 3 percent. Heating oil homes, about 3 percent of households and mostly in the Northeast, are forecast at $2,115, up 21 percent.

Why heating oil stands apart

The EIA expects the residential heating oil price to average $5.26 a gallon this winter, 34 percent above last winter. In its analysis of the outlook, the agency ties the rise to lower refinery output around the world, which has raised international prices for distillate fuels, the category that includes heating oil and diesel. U.S. distillate exports in the first seven months of 2026 ran 20 percent above the same months of 2025, mostly to Europe, and the EIA expects U.S. distillate inventories in the fourth quarter to sit about 11 percent below their five-year average.

The bill rises less than the price because the EIA expects a warmer Northeast after a relatively cold winter there. Its base case puts Northeast heating degree days, a measure of how cold it gets and for how long, 12 percent below last winter. That lowers the forecast amount of heating oil a typical home burns by 9 percent, to about 402 gallons.

Region by region

The national averages cover wide regional gaps. For natural gas homes, the EIA forecasts $879 in the Northeast (down 14 percent), $613 in the Midwest (down 10 percent), $511 in the South (down 15 percent) and $590 in the West (up 7 percent). For electrically heated homes: $1,637 in the Northeast (down 3 percent), $1,380 in the Midwest (up 3 percent), $1,079 in the South (up 3 percent) and $1,151 in the West (up 9 percent). For propane homes: $1,687 in the Northeast (down 15 percent), $1,305 in the Midwest (down 4 percent) and $1,164 in the South (unchanged).

The West runs against the national pattern because the EIA expects it to be much colder than last winter, which was unusually warm there. Its base case has 25 percent more heating degree days in the West than last winter. Nationally, the agency expects temperatures about the same as last winter, with the Midwest and South close to last year.

The prices behind the bills

The EIA forecasts the national residential natural gas price at $13.44 per thousand cubic feet this winter, 9 percent below last winter, ranging from $10.38 in the Midwest to $16.12 in the Northeast. Residential electricity is forecast at 18.23 cents per kilowatthour nationally, up 3 percent, from 15.75 cents in the South to 26.19 cents in the Northeast. Propane is forecast at $2.52 a gallon nationally, down 2 percent, with the Northeast highest at $3.28.

How the forecast is built, and its limits

The figures are in nominal dollars and assume inflation of about 2 percent. Weather in the base case follows the previous 30-year trend. Household consumption comes from the EIA's 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the share of homes using each fuel comes from the Census Bureau's 2024 American Community Survey. Natural gas and electricity bills lag wholesale prices, while heating oil and propane changes reach retail customers in about four to six weeks. The EIA notes that spending is not directly comparable from one fuel to another, because the homes that use each fuel differ in climate and housing stock.

Weather is the largest source of uncertainty. NOAA has identified a strong El Niño pattern this winter, which the EIA says could produce large departures from its base case, so the agency publishes side cases in which every region runs 10 percent colder or 10 percent warmer. On price, the EIA names heating oil as the main upside risk, because U.S. distillate stocks are low heading into winter. The agency refreshes the outlook's data with each monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, so these figures can move during the season.

No federal efficiency credit for 2026 installs

One change from recent winters affects anyone pricing new equipment. The IRS page for the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit lists it for property placed in service from January 1, 2023 through the end of 2025, and lists no extension. The credit covered 30 percent of qualified costs, up to $1,200 a year for most improvements and up to $2,000 a year for qualified heat pumps, heat pump water heaters and biomass stoves or boilers, claimed on Form 5695.

The regional tables, the colder and warmer side cases and the full method are on the EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook page, which also links the monthly updates. A home's own bill depends on its fuel, its size, its insulation and its thermostat settings, and the utility or fuel dealer is the source for the rate a household will actually pay.

This article reports rules, data and expert guidance. It is not legal, tax, insurance or financial advice. Talk to a licensed pro, your tax advisor or your insurer before you act on it.

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